Simple Moving
Average (SMA) means a line constituted by the average stock price of the past.
For example, a 10 days SMA is a line constituted by the stock price averaged of
past 10 days.
Simple Moving
Average (SMA) has several simple uses and it is very common among technical
analyst.
1 Golden
Cross/Dead Cross
When a shorter term
SMA cross a longer term SMA from below to above(5days SMA cross 10days SMA),
Golden cross is
formed. This is the common definition. To be more specific, for a golden cross
to be formed, both short term and long term SMA should be slope upwards.
For deadly Cross, it
is completely opposite. When a shorter term SMA cross a longer term SMA from
above to below(5days SMA cross 10days SMA), dead cross is formed.
Specifically, for a dead cross to be
formed, both short term and long term SMA should be slope downwards.
One of the most
simple technical strategies is buy in when a golden cross is formed and sell
out when a dead cross is formed.
2 Slope of SMA
If we monitor
directly everyday actual price movement, sometimes we can hardly see the trend
because there are so much noise and volatility. Therefore, we can choose to
monitor the slope of the SMA because SMA represent the average value of the
past stock price and is more smooth compared to actual price. The longer the
SMA is, the more powerful is it to determine a trend. Especially when an
original upward slope SMA starts to slope downward, it may indicate a change of
upward trend to downward trend.
When SMA is below
the actual stock price, it serves as a supportive line. When the price touches
that particular SMA from the top, it will face strong buying power and hard to break through it. When SMA is
above the actual stock price, it serves as a resistance line. When the price
touch the SMA from below, it will face strong selling power and hard to break
through it.
The theory behind
this phenomenon is because of the main power. Main power usually requires a few
days/weeks to buy in the amount of stock they required (main power buy a lot of
stock). If a main power use 10 days to buy in the stock, 10 days SMA becomes
his average buy in prices. Therefore, when actual price drop and touch SMA
line, main power will stop the dropping of price by buying more. This is
because actual price above SMA (average buy in price for main power) means a
profit and actual price drops below SMA means a loss for main power.
Continue to Step 7: "Bollinger Band"
Return to "Library Index"
Continue to Step 7: "Bollinger Band"
Return to "Library Index"
How do we know the main power is using SMA 10 or SMA 20?
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